Every week someone in Cary asks us some version of the same question: "Ballpark, what's this going to cost me?" So here are the real 2026 numbers we quote, in writing. These are complete, installed prices: equipment, labor, permits, haul-away and commissioning. No teaser pricing.
The short answer: $6,500 to $17,000, most often around $10,000
| System tier | Installed price | Who it fits |
|---|---|---|
| Single-stage, 14–15 SEER2 | $6,500 – $9,000 | Smaller homes, rentals, tight budgets |
| Two-stage, 15–17 SEER2 | $9,000 – $12,500 | Most Cary families, the value sweet spot |
| Variable-speed, 18+ SEER2 | $12,500 – $17,000 | Efficiency maximalists, allergy & humidity concerns |
| Ductless mini-split, single zone | $4,000 – $6,500 | Bonus rooms, garages, additions |
The five things that move your number
1. Size (tonnage), but not the way you think
A bigger home generally needs more capacity, but the relationship isn't linear and guessing high is expensive twice: oversized systems cost more upfront and short-cycle their way to humidity problems and early failure. This is why we run a Manual J load calculation on every installation instead of using square-footage rules.
2. Efficiency tier
Each step up, single-stage, two-stage, variable-speed, adds roughly $2,500–$4,000 and pays some of it back monthly on your Duke Energy bill. In our climate, the two-stage tier hits the best payback for most households.
3. Your ductwork's condition
The most common surprise line-item. Leaky, undersized or crushed ducts can steal 20–30% of a new system's performance. Sealing or modifying ductwork typically adds $1,000–$3,000, and is usually worth every penny.
4. Electrical work
Most Cary homes built after the 1990s are ready to go. Older homes occasionally need a panel upgrade or new circuit, adding $500–$2,500.
5. Installation quality, the invisible variable
Two identical heat pumps can perform completely differently depending on refrigerant charge accuracy, airflow setup and commissioning. The Department of Energy estimates poor installation cuts efficiency by up to 30%. It's the part of the price you can't see, and the part that determines whether you get the efficiency you paid for.
Now subtract: credits and rebates
- Federal 25C tax credit: 30% of the project, up to $2,000, for qualifying ENERGY STAR systems. Claimed on your tax return with Form 5695, we supply the paperwork.
- Duke Energy rebates: programs change through the year, but high-efficiency installs and smart thermostats have historically qualified. We check what's active the week you buy.
- Manufacturer promotions: seasonal, spring and fall are typically the best windows to buy.
A real-world example
How to get your actual number
Start with a call: share your square footage, system age and what's bothering you, and we'll come back with an honest range fast. If it makes sense to go further, we'll set up an in-home assessment and put together a formal, itemized quote. Compare us to anyone, we'll even tell you what questions to ask the other guys.
Call (984) 348-9940 for your ballpark
Related reading: Heat pump vs. gas furnace in NC · Financing & rebates guide